Abivax stock (EPA: ABVX) surged roughly 30% in early Paris trading Monday after French media reported that US pharmaceutical giant Eli Lilly was preparing a €15 billion ($17.5 billion) acquisition offer for the French biotech.
The move would value the company at nearly double its current market capitalization and cap an extraordinary year of gains for investors.
The buyout would signal Eli Lilly’s aggressive push into inflammatory bowel disease treatments and represent one of the largest pharma acquisitions in recent memory.
Abivax stock: Biotech breakout reshapes trading floor
Abivax stock climbed to 120.60 euros by late morning, hitting an intraday peak of 130 euros before settling with a gain of roughly 22 to 32% on the Euronext exchange.
Trading volume surged as retail investors and hedge funds scrambled to position ahead of what analysts described as inevitable deal confirmation.
The stock had closed Friday at 99 euros, meaning the day’s move wiped away weeks of recent volatility and rewarded early believers in the company’s drug pipeline.
The jump marks a stunning milestone for Abivax: shares have climbed 1,742% over the trailing 12 months.
That explosive run reflects investor conviction in obefazimod, the company’s lead oral candidate for ulcerative colitis/inflammatory bowel disease.
Market chatter centered on Lilly’s strategic rationale and execution timing.
According to French publication La Lettre, Lilly was awaiting clearance from France’s Finance Ministry to assess whether foreign investment rules would encumber the deal.
The proposed €15 billion offer would require roughly three months of regulatory review under French national-security protocols, a process that CEO Marc de Garidel acknowledged in December interviews with Bloomberg and BiotechTV.
Analysts flagged the speculation as credible but cautioned that neither company had issued formal statements confirming talks.
Stifel analyst Damien Choplain noted in commentary that “the fluctuation in share price is influenced by rumors surrounding a possible takeover,” underscoring investor appetite for deal closure.
Why is Eli Lilly interested?
Abivax’s obefazimod achieved a remarkable clinical milestone in July 2025 when it met primary endpoints in twin Phase 3 trials for ulcerative colitis.
The drug produced a pooled 16.4% placebo-adjusted clinical remission rate at the 50 milligram once-daily dose, a result that sparked a 510% single-day stock surge.
The successful trial positioned obefazimod as a potential best-in-class oral option in a market dominated by injectables.
For Lilly, the acquisition fits a proven playbook: the pharmaceutical giant has accelerated bolt-on biotech deals to diversify beyond blockbuster diabetes and obesity drugs.
Just this month, Lilly completed its $1.2 billion acquisition of inflammation-focused Ventyx Biosciences, signaling serious intent to build oral immunology and inflammatory disease capabilities.
Analysts estimated Abivax’s fair valuation at €12 billion to €20 billion, based on comparable inflammatory bowel disease deals and obefazimod’s peak sales forecasts.
The €15 billion reported offer sits in that range, though some investors suggested Lilly might sweeten terms if maintenance trial results, due in Q2 2026, prove stronger than anticipated.
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