Factbox-Most brokerages expect 50 bps of Fed rate cuts for rest of 2024

Factbox-Most brokerages expect 50 bps of Fed rate cuts for rest of 2024

(Reuters) -Most major brokerages expect the U.S. Federal Reserve to lower interest rates by a cumulative 50 basis points across its November and December meetings, after the central bank announced an outsized 50 bps reduction earlier this month.

Fed Chair Jerome Powell called the cut a “recalibration” to account for the sharp decline in inflation since last year. He noted that the economy remained strong but the central bank wanted to stay ahead of and stave off any weakening in the job market.

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages after the Fed’s decision:

Rate cut estimates (in bps)

2024

Nov Dec 2025 Fed Funds Rate at

end of 2025

BofA 125 2.75%-3.00%

Global Research

50 25

UBS Global Wealth 50 100 3.25%-3.50%

Management

Deutsche Bank 25 25 125 3.25%-3.50%

Barclays 25 25 75 3.50%-3.75%

Morgan Stanley 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through

(through June 2025)

June

2025)

Macquarie 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through

(through June 2025)

June

2025)

Goldman Sachs 25 25 100 3.25%-3.50% (through

(through June 2025)

June

2025)

Citigroup 50 25

J.P. Morgan 50 25

HSBC

100 3.25%-3.50% (through

25 25 (through June 2025)

June

2025)

Here are the forecasts from major brokerages ahead of the Fed’s decision:

Rate cut estimates (in bps)

Sept Nov Dec

Goldman Sachs 25 25 25

BofA Global Research 25 25 25

UBS Global Wealth 50 25 25

Management

J.P.Morgan 50 50 25

Wells Fargo 50 50 25

Nomura 25 25 25

Deutsche Bank 25 25 25

Morgan Stanley 25 25 25

Citigroup 25 50 50

Wells Fargo 50 25 25

Investment Institute

Barclays 25 25 25

UBS Global Research 25 25 25

HSBC 25 25 25

Macquarie 25 25 25

* UBS Global Research and UBS Global Wealth Management are distinct, independent divisions in UBS Group

* Wells Fargo Investment Institute is a wholly owned subsidiary of Wells Fargo Bank

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