Investing.com — The end of the year is coming into view but before then the Fed will deliver its final policy decision for 2024, along with the Bank of Japan and the Bank of England. Here’s your look at what’s happening in markets for the week ahead.
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Fed decision
The Fed is widely expected to deliver another 25-basis point rate cut after its final meeting of the year on Wednesday, in what would be its third straight reduction.
With the cut already fully priced in, investors are focusing on any guidance around how much further rates could be cut in 2025.
The Fed’s updated summary of economic projections released at the meeting will provide one indication of where policymakers see rates heading. In a sign of possible support for a slower pace of rate cuts next year Fed Chair Jerome Powell said this month the economy is stronger now than the central bank had anticipated in September.
“In our view, risks for the meeting skew dovish relative to market expectations,” analysts at Citi said in a note on Friday.
“Chair Powell will likely repeat that rate cuts can slow if inflation picks up, but they can also speed up if the unemployment rate continues to rise and the soft jobs report together with slowing inflation may have officials once again paying a bit more attention to the employment mandate.”
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BOJ meeting
The Bank of Japan is to hold its final meeting for 2024 on Thursday and while market expectations have swung widely in the past two weeks as the decision draws nearer a consensus is forming that officials will hold steady.
Reuters reported on Thursday that policymakers are leaning towards a pause, waiting for further data on wages and clarity on Donald Trump’s policies before hiking rates for a third time.
A day earlier, Bloomberg reported that BOJ officials see “little cost” from delaying additional tightening.
But market volatility could be high going into the meeting with the outcome still uncertain. One potential risk is that the Fed holds off cutting rates on Wednesday, triggering a jump in the dollar-yen exchange rate.
But analysts have noted that it would be very rare for the Fed to go against the grain when market expectations for a cut are so strong.
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BoE expected to hold
The BoE is widely expected to keep rates on hold at 4.75% on Thursday and is seen holding off from delivering a third rate 25-bps rate cut until February. Markets are currently pricing in three quarter-point rate cuts by the end of next year.
Data on Friday showed that the UK economy contracted for the second month in a row in October, adding to concerns over the outlook after recent business surveys pointed to weakness and retail sales flatlined.
The BoE is unlikely to be sufficiently concerned over GDP to cut rates this week.
Last month the central bank trimmed its annual growth forecast for 2024 to 1% from 1.25% but forecast a stronger 2025 with 1.5% growth, reflecting a short-term boost to the economy from Chancellor Rachel Reeves’ budget.
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PMI data
Global PMI numbers this week will give investors fresh insight into the health of the world’s economy after data in November indicated that sluggishness in the manufacturing sector is spreading to service sector activity.
The November eurozone composite PMI, seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, sank to 48.3 from October’s 50.0.
Britain’s all-sector PMI fell to its lowest in a year at 50.9 – just above the marker that separates contraction from expansion. Even U.S. services sector activity slowed.
Uncertainty over U.S. tariff along with political turmoil in France and Germany have the potential to hurt business activity.
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Oil prices
Oil prices ended Friday at the highest level in three weeks amid expectations that additional sanctions on Russia and Iran could tighten supplies and that lower interest rates in Europe and the U.S. could bolster the demand outlook.
Brent gained 5% for the week, while WTI posted a 6% gain for the week and closed at its highest since Nov. 7.
The European Union has agreed to impose a 15th package of sanctions on Russia over its war against Ukraine, targeting its shadow tanker fleet. The U.S. is considering similar moves.
The European Central Bank cut interest rates again on Thursday and indicated further rate cuts were on the cards in 2025 provided inflation settles at the bank’s 2% target as expected.
Meanwhile, investors are betting that the Fed will cut rates again on Thursday with further cuts to follow next year.
Lower interest rates can boost economic growth and demand for oil.
